Conduct of Fiscal Policy
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THE AMENDED AND SUPPLEMENTARY BUDGETS OF 2010The 2010 Appropriation Bill was passed by the National Assembly and assented to by Mr. President in April 2010. In the light of prevailing revenue realities and some unanticipated expenditure items such as the wage increases awarded to civil servants, university lecturers, and medical personnel, Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) arrears of monetisation and additional funding for Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), there was a need to review the 2010 Appropriation and this resulted in two Supplementary Budgets. Following a series of consultations between the Executive and Legislature, the amended budget as passed by the National Assembly (NASS) in May 2010 stood at N4,427 billion. It was based on an oil benchmark price of US$60.0 per barrel in line with the oil-price based fiscal rule, oil production of 2.25 million barrels per day and an exchange rate of N150.0/US$. The first and second supplementary budgets appropriated were N644.75 billion and N87.72 billion, respectively. Therefore, the aggregate expenditure approved in the 2010 Budgets amounted to N5,160 billion, of which N1,765 billion and N2,669 billion were allocated to capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure, respectively.
2010 Budget Performance:Revenue
Oil prices averaged US$81 per barrel with oil production of 2.462mbpd for the year, resulting in gross oil revenue of N5,396 billion or 10 per cent above the budgeted revenue of N4,902 billion while FGN retained Revenue of N2,960 billion was realised, compared with N3,180 billion projected, representing a shortfall of N221.15 billion or 6.95 per cent as at end-December 2010.
The FGN's share of oil revenue was short by N188.6 billion or 12.96 per cent of the budget of N1,456 billion at N1,267 billion. Its aggregate share of VAT, CIT and Custom Duties fell short of N530.1 billion target by 1.70 per cent with N521.05 billion realised as at end-December 2010. Non-oil revenue collection showed that CIT, performed above budget by 12.63 per cent, while Customs collection fell by 22.74 per cent. FGN's aggregate share of VAT, CIT and Customs Duties fell short by N9.05 billion or 1.70 per cent of the budgeted N530.1 billion to N521.05 billion as at end-December 2010.
Of the 2010 budget total expenditure of N5,160 billion, actual expenditure stood at N4,050 billion or 78.48 per cent. Actual aggregate expenditure including recurrent releases were on track for personnel cost, overheads, statutory transfers and debt service charges amounting to N3,163.19 billion in 2010, compared with the amended 2010 budget of N3,395.21 billion.
Of the N1,765 billion earmarked for capital expenditure, only N956.11 billion was released and cash-backed. Of the N956.11 billion released and cash-backed, Government utilised N935.61 billion which put the average capital utilization at 97.86 per cent as at end-March 2011, compared to 70.42 recorded as at end-December, 2010.
The total level of deficit (financing) was 6.06 per cent of GDP in 2010. The major concern with respect to the budget performance was the inefficiency in government spending and increased wage bill from N857.04 billion in 2009 to N1,381 billion in 2010.<
THE 2011 AMENDED BUDGETThe 2011 Budget witnessed a long delay in passing by the National Assembly (NASS). Its total aggregate expenditure as finally amended by the NASS in May 2011 stood at N4,485.6 billion. Of which capital expenditure, statutory transfers and recurrent expenditure were N1,148 billion, N417.6 billion and N2,920 billion, respectively. The total level of deficit financing was estimated at 2.96 per cent of GDP. Oil production was projected at 2.3 million barrels per day.
2011 Budget Performance:Revenue
The 2011 Elections, the subsequent inauguration of a new Administration in May 2011 and the passage of the 2011 Amendment Budget in same month all affected the implementation of the budget in 2011. The implementation of the 2011 Budget indicates that revenue performance improved during the year over the level in 2010.
Oil prices averaged US$114.07 per barrel while actual oil production recorded 2.40 mbpd for the year 2012. This resulted in actual gross oil revenue of N8,848.62 billion or 29.83 per cent exceeding the 2011 budget estimate of N6,815.63 billion. On the other hand, non-oil revenue of N1,139.01 billion was; however, lower than the 2011 budget estimate of N1,298.33 billion by N159.32 billion or 12.27 per cent.
The actual Federal Government retained revenue in 2011 stood at N3,140.64 billion indicating a short fall of N252.69 billion or 7.45 per cent when compared with the 2011 budget estimate of N3,393.20 billion. The sources of Federal Government revenue were: FGN share of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) N2,792.51 billion or 88.92 per cent, FGN Independent Revenue N182.49 billion or 5.81 per cent, FGN share of VAT N87.29 billion or 2.78 per cent, External Creditor Funding N41.66 billion or 1.33 per cent, 2010 Unspent Balance N19.76 billion or 0.63 per cent, Plea Bargain N8.70 billion or 0.28 per cent and FGN Balance of Special Accounts N8.23 billion or 0.26 per cent.
The actual aggregate expenditure of the Federal Government in 2011 stood at N4,299.16 billion. The breakdown of FGN expenditure in the period showed the following: Recurrent (non-debt) Expenditure (N2,527.26 billion), Capital Expenditure (N809.96 billion), Statutory Transfer (N326.27 billion) and Debt Service (N527.07 billion). The implementation of the capital budget had been slow and inefficient, and had been extended to March, 2012.
The overall budget deficit for the period stood at N1,158.52 billion. This indicated that the Federal government's total expenditure exceeded its revenue in the review period.